How is the real economy faring?

Excerpts from the interview with Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz on issues surrounding the domestic and international economy. Yap Leng Kuen, Jagdev Singh Sidhu and P. Gunasegaram interviewed her.
Bizweek: Do you expect the 3.5% growth next year to be achievable?
Yes.
What do you think will threaten the forecast?
An external environment that is beyond what we have already priced in, that is half the world in a recession.
If the recession becomes a depression, with high rates of unemployment and severe economic contraction, then of course, this will have repercussions even for Asia.
When do we see a recovery?

Warren Buffet got it right. It will take about 18 months. When we implemented the resolution to restructure our banking sector during the (1997) crisis, banks started lending again six months after the implementation of Pengurusan Danaharta Bhd, Danamodal Nasional Bhd and the Corporate Debt Restructuring Committee, together with other measures.
So the first indicator is when banks start lending again. The confidence has to return for the recovery to take place.
Crisis – past & present
If we were to compare the current economic condition to that of the previous crisis, how bad is it for Malaysia and globally?
We need to separate the two. We are not in a recession and we don’t expect to be in one.
Half the world will likely be in a recession. We are the other part that expects to still see growth because there are real economic activities happening.
You have to make a distinction between the stage of the crisis. In our case, we took action very early so there is the potential for containing the severity of the crisis.
In the case of the US, the action was taken too late and as a result, the crisis will have to run its full course.
What this means is the prices, mostly asset prices, will have to adjust before they reach their lows. The slower they adjust, the more prolonged it will be. It will likely take 18 months from the time they implement all their measures and that will take us into 2010.
Do you see unemployment in Malaysia rising?
It will rise but not significantly. The measures that are being put in place are promoting job creation and the education system to retrain and re-absorb.
The financial services sector is not contracting. In fact, it is expanding. There are job opportunities and there are still many vacancies in many organisations.
This is a time the workforce needs to be redeployed to the areas where there are opportunities. People may not get the jobs they want to have but during this kind of period, they have to take on jobs where there are vacancies.
Do you foresee the ringgit going back to the level of RM3.80/US dollar?
It would not reflect our underlying fundamentals. Currently, it reflects short-term flows. In the near term, we are going to see volatility but the medium-term underlying trend should be a gradual appreciation.
What is the comfortable level for the ringgit?
We don’t have a level that we are looking at. The International Monetary Fund continues to tell us that our ringgit is undervalued.
We said as a central bank, we never stood in the way of an underlying trend for the currency and in fact, it appreciated quite sharply to RM3.15. We didn’t stand in the way. Now, it has depreciated.
And we noticed when our currency appreciated, there was no representation to the central bank that this is too fast or putting us in difficulty.
Now, the currency has depreciated and importers will be affected. But again, there have been no remarks.
What is key to us is that the market remains orderly. The central bank will be there to ensure orderly conditions.
Over the long term, don’t you think the Asian currencies will have to strengthen as an overall adjustment?
I don’t think Asia determines the exchange rate of major currencies. The point that I want to emphasise is we don’t just look at one currency anymore. We should not just look at our link to the US dollar.
We should look at all the other currencies. Against the sterling, we have appreciated significantly. Against the euro, we have appreciated by a lesser amount and against the Aussie, quite a lot of people are quite happy.
Asia does not determine the currencies. (it is) the financial flows... that is why we have heightened our surveillance of the financial system. Asian countries have been responsible in the way they manage their reserves.
In the case of Malaysia, we had diversified our portfolio seven or eight years ago. This is important because of the high volatility of all the currencies.
People say interest rates should be reduced. Where do you see the interest rates heading?
We have said that we would take swift action to support the economy. If it is necessary, certainly, we have the flexibility to do so.
Do you think we need to bring the budget deficit under control?
In good times, every effort should be made to bring it under control. But under these challenging times, it is important to provide support to the economy to prevent a sharp economic downturn.
Yes, some of the issues need to be addressed like enhancing the revenue base. But this can be done during better times like having value-added tax.

Rules on manufacturing licence relaxed to encourage investments

KUALA LUMPUR: The automatic issuance of manufacturing licences within two days will be made possible as they will now be issued by the Malaysian Industrial Development Authority (Mida), said International Trade and Industry Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.
Muhyiddin, who announced the new measure yesterday, said a mechanism would be established at Mida for this purpose.
This was one of several measures he said the Government would undertake to help domestic trade and industry players counter the impact of the global economic slowdown.
An International Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti) source said the ministry had also asked Mida to come up with a simpler form to apply for the licence, which will require only basic information for automatic approval.
Except for certain categories of activities, licence applications will no longer require approval by the Miti secretary-general.
However, activities related to security, health, environment and religion will still need to go through the normal vetting and approval process by the licensing officer.
Firms have said that under the old system, licence application could take up to a month.
Under the Industrial Coordination Act, a manufacturing licence is required for projects by companies with a minimum shareholders’ fund of RM2.5mil or employing 75 full-time employees. This requirement still remains.
Earlier measures to liberalise the licensing process includes doing away with renewal. The RM50 licence fee was also abolished on June 1. Muhyiddin also said he would announce more measures after meeting industry players in other specific sectors, as well as based on the future economic scenario.
Meanwhile, MP for Alor Gajah Datuk Seri Dr Fong Chan Onn, who is a former dean of Universiti Malaya’s economic faculty, said: “If the automatic issuance of licence also deals with approval and usage of land, staff employment, Immigration approval and various other past requirements, it will encourage more investors to do business in Malaysia.”

OIL PRICE INCREASE!! OMG!

04-06-2008: PM announces restructured fuel subsidy scheme

KUALA LUMPUR: Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced a restructred fuel subsidy scheme today. The measures included:

Effective midnight, fuel petrol price has been raised to RM2.70 per litre; diesel up by RM1 per litre to RM2.58; ULG 92 up 74 sen; ULG 97 up 78 sen.
Cars up to 2L, pick-ups up to 2.5L to get RM625 annual cash rebate; motorcycles up to 250cc get RM150; rebates via postal order from July 1, 2008.
Power sector gas raised to RM14.31 from RM6.40 per mmbtu; IPPs pay 30% windfall tax on PBIT; Tenaga can raise tariffs by next month; households using less than RM40 of power will not be affected.
Industries using less than 2mmscfd of gas to pay up to RM24.54 per mmbtu versus RM9.40 now; industries using more than 2mmscfd to pay RM32.56 per mmbtu from RM11.32 now.
Cars above 2L get road tax discount of RM200; motorcycles more than 250cc, road tax discount of RM50.
CPO cess removed; for oil millers, windfall tax at 15% at threshold of RM2,000 per tonne; Sabah and Sarawak millers to pay 7.5%.
The impact:

Annual inflation expected to be at 4%-5%
Rebates for motorists expected at RM5 billion
Govt to maintain GDP growth at low end of forecast of 5%
Fuel subsidy this year expected at RM18 billion versus RM57 billion if not for restructuring
Govt expects to save RM13.7 billion from fuel subsidy; savings to go towards food security, cooking oil, rice, bread, flour, among other things.

Malaysia's Economy remain resilient

I came across today newspaper saying that BNM is projecting headline inflation to average between 2.5% and 3% this year after taking into consideration the possibility of subsidy adjustments in some controlled items.

Despite challenging external conditions marked by the downturn in the United States, Malaysia's economy is still expected to remain resilient this year because of the country's strong fundamentals, diversified export base, and low exposure of local financial institutions to the US subprime market.

Petrol price won't increase at this moment, water and electricty also won't increase at this moment. What a good news. but how can it last long? cut in subsidy will be in a gradual process.

According to Zeti, "the issues of supply contraints such as open more land for food production, enhance better techniques in production and manufacturing could be able to deal with inflation.

Improvements in distribution and warehousing could minimise wastage, reducing cost and eventually inflation. Reducing cost seems is one of the main strategy in every field even apply to every company even our personal life." She said improving efficiency required resources and, more importantly, professional expertise, adding that the Government had allocated funds for this initiative and continued to support human capital development via various training programmes.

Of course, Improving efficiency is also one of the main concern in every aspects. if every party work more efficient, more professional and more productive , then the world won't waste more money on unnecessary cost. In the meanwhile, we can avoid more problems and spend our time more meaningful and worthiness.

I think it applies to everyone's life as well. seems everyone's life is so busy but then should spend it worthiness. INflation?!! dont bother it..well plan your money and time.

Travelling the whole world?! is it a dream?

MATTA fair has just started since 14 March 08. I keep searching info if there is any attractive package. hope I can find a good package as i wanted to visit my brother in UK.

In the meanwhile, i also want to take a break.hehehe..maybe just an excuse. I want to travel and explore more.

Travelling ....is it a dream? i wondering how many countries i can visit in my life?
how many people i would met in my life?

but then travelling also need to find a suitable partner. i dont dare backpack or travel alone yet. =p of course money and time also an important consideration.

my dream...wish you are not dream anymore....=) travel the whole world! Step on every corner of the world. hehe..

Anyway, as long as we treasure and enjoy the moment we have gone through in our life..you have been travelling the prettiest place in your life. =)

Enjoy your Journey!

COOL Dining Experience!

There is nothing impossible in the world. I was really amazed while i see these pics..share with you all...it is really a unique dining experience.

You can have breakfast, lunch, dinner or cocktail or invite your boss for a meeting while enjoying your meal. 50 meters above ground dining event arranged by a professional event arranger of Benji Fun company. It provides 22 seating complete with Chef, server, musician and you can select your own location without limitation. Guarantee safety with the hoisting crane which can accommodate the whole band of musician, or making an automobile presentation to your customers. This restaurant is in Belgium.

Can you see the pianist ?!! it is really amazing...

Oil rises towards US$102 on weak dollar

By Alex Lawler

LONDON: Oil rose towards US$102 (RM331.50) a barrel on Feb 28, trading within sight of its record high, as the US dollar sank to a new low and after militant attacks cut supply from Nigeria, Africa's top exporter.

Investors have pumped cash into commodities in recent weeks, betting on signs that the US Federal Reserve will keep cutting rates to prop up the economy. The dollar fell to a record low versus the euro on Thursday.

"The energy complex is a dollar/inflation story as investors have moved into commodities as a hedge against inflation," said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president at Macquarie Futures USA.

"The ever-weakening dollar, upward inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions are having a greater impact on the market than the fundamentals."

US crude rose US$2.25 to US$101.88 a barrel by 1610 GMT, having hit a record US$102.08 on Wednesday. London Brent crude gained US$1.78 to US$100.05.

US crude is nearing the inflation-adjusted high of US$102.53 hit in 1980, according to data from the International Energy Agency in Paris.

The US dollar dropped to an all-time low versus the euro after US fourth-quarter gross domestic product was revised lower and a report showed a surprisingly big jump in initial weekly jobless claims.

Prices of dollar-denominated commodities tend to rise when the currency weakens.

Also boosting prices, output at Nigeria's Brass River crude stream was cut by 20,000 barrels per day this week due to sabotage on a pipeline, Italian oil firm Agip said. The leak was fixed on Wednesday and output restored.

The setback at Brass River comes on top of about 515,000 bpd of supply shut down in Nigeria.

Expectations that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) will not raise output at its meeting on March 5 also supported oil, as did winter fuel demand in the United States and Europe.

Opec most likely will decide at next week's meeting to keep its oil output steady, the head of Libya's Opec delegation, Shokri Ghanem, said on Thursday.

Analysts who use past price movements to predict future direction said a move a few dollars higher for US crude, also known as WTI, could lead to further gains.

"With the dollar in freefall, we would be concerned that if WTI rallies above US$102-US$103 it would trigger a further surge towards US$110-US$115," Barclays Capital technical analysts said in a report.

"For the time being, we are hopeful that US$102-US$103 will continue to cap and dip back towards US$99, or even US$97, before a more important test of the upside occurs."

Oil fell early in the session due to bulging fuel stocks in the United States. US crude stocks rose last week for a seventh week, a government report showed on Wednesday.

"In terms of fundamentals, it's hard to justify the ferocity of the market's rally," said Robert Laughlin of MF Global. "The weakness in the US economy is now affecting demand." -- Reuters

理財迷思:瞭解銀行操作及利率

一般上，父母都會鼓勵孩子把所獲得的紅包及零用錢儲蓄起來，而銀行就成為其中一個選擇的儲蓄管道。父母在為孩子開設儲蓄戶口的當兒，不妨攜帶孩子參與開戶口、存款以及取款的流程。

既然選擇把錢存入銀行，父母就有必要告訴孩子關于銀行操作和利率的常識。

首先，父母可讓孩子知道銀行的基本操作情形，例如：銀行通過不同年限的存款利息，讓我們把錢存入銀行，銀行籌集到大量的存款后，再把錢借貸給需要用錢的人和企業，同時，向貸款者收取利息。

這是一個看似簡單的轉手買賣，但其實它是一個複雜的過程，因為銀行要考慮到收取利息和發放利息之間的有效關係。即使收取的利息大于發放的利息，銀行還是有風險存在的。為了降低風險，銀行通過各種方式，如期限或年限，讓存戶能在固定的時間內把錢存在戶口里。

也許這樣說，孩子不容易懂，那就給孩子舉個例子吧！比如：銀行一共有100個人存錢，每人存100令吉，那么，銀行可以用來借貸的資金是1萬令吉。正好有個商人來貸款，他需要5000令吉，于是，銀行就把錢借給了他。不久后，100個存戶中，其中60個存戶湊巧要把所存的錢取走，但銀行總共剩下5000令吉，不夠支付60個存戶。在這樣的情況下，銀行將面臨危機。

為了避免這樣的事情發生，銀行才會運用不同年限的存款利息方法，來吸引存戶去長期、定期儲蓄。這樣才能有效的把風險降到最低。

因此，告訴孩子不同的存錢期限，可以得到不同的利息。銀行的操作情況，當然遠不止這么簡單，如果100個人把錢存進銀行，結果沒有人去借貸，那么，銀行必須自己承擔存戶的利息支付，從另一個角度來講，銀行也會面臨倒閉的風險。

所以，銀行一方面在控制固定存款，另一方面又害怕存款借貸不出去，在雙面刃的情況下，銀行就衍生了許多投資產品，把銀行的作業方式多元化。

更深入認識金融體系

此外，也讓孩子知道各個銀行的利率情況。因現在各個銀行的利率都略有不同，如一家銀行的貸款太少，那么他們就開始調低利息，來減少自己的風險；如果貸款很多，銀行又希望刺激存戶把錢存長久一些。

讓孩子知道，銀行的利率，也可分為固定利率及波動利率。所謂固定利率，就是當你選擇了這個利率之后，在存款日到期之前，不管市場利率是上揚或是下降，你的利率水平都不會變動。而波動利率則會跟著市場利率的變動，有上上下下的起伏。

讓孩子瞭解銀行的操作方式及利率，有助于孩子對金融體系更深入的認識，也讓這些知識成為孩子儲蓄的推動力。

How to Pay Off your mortgage

Hi! my friend, i would like to share some stategies on how you can cut down your houseing loan payments to five years or less. for those always puzzling or suffering paying house loan for 20-30 tenure years. it may helps you !

1. Pay the loan as soon as you get the money
2. Pay a little bit extra every month
3. Pay every fortnighly(instead of monthly)
4. Pay early (before the due date)
5. pay the loan anytime you have extra cash
6. Maintain the same payment even when the interest rate drops
7. Increase the payment amount if you get a pay rise
8. Sell off unused goods and use the money to pay the loan
9. Refinance the loan to another bank offering a lower interest

hope it helps you all! ^______^

理財八寶箱:房產與股票的投資學差異

25th Feb 08

房產不是股票。

當然，你可能不會將所居住的房屋，與你在經紀公司帳戶清單上的那些投資項目混為一談。


不過，思考一下二者之間的區別，有助于解釋為何人們都喜歡擁有房產，而一些房產主目前為何深陷困境。以下是房產與股票和股票型共同基金相比的五個主要的不同之處。

1.直到出售時，才能知道房子價格。

通過互聯網只需要幾分鐘，你就能瞭解所持有的股票或股票型基金的價格。但賣房子不同，只有在買家出價后，你才會知道房產價值。這給人們留下了豐富的夢想空間。你可以愉快地想象你的房產是一項上佳的穩定投資，因為與股票不同，它的價格不會變來變去。你也可愉快地想象房屋價值大大地提升了。

但如果你在當前動盪的房產市場上希望出售房屋，這種優越感可能成為巨大的障礙。如果你堅持高價出售，可能難以找到買家。實際上，如果你已經搬走，而你的房屋空置在那裡，你的固執會讓你失去大把鈔票。

2.擁有房屋費用率高昂。

可以把你的房產看作費用率很高的股票型基金。每年，你都要付出一大筆錢，包括維修費、物業稅和業主保險等等，大概相當于房產價值的3%至3.5%。此外，還有水電費，可能還要每月償還貸款。如果你能充分利用好你的房屋，這些成本或許不算什么。但如果你有一處空置房屋要出手，這意味著，在沒有買家光顧的情況下，你每月都要燒錢。

3.房屋出售時要支付高昂的佣金。

不但持有房產的成本不低，購買時也要付出相當費用，而出售的費用則更驚人。

購買房產要支付房屋檢查費、律師費、所有權保險、搬遷費和抵押貸款申請費。出售也要產生搬遷費和律師費。但大頭卻是房地產佣金，一般要佔到你房產售價的5%或6%。

買賣股票的情況是，如果你選擇的是低價經紀商，那么交易成本相當低。

實際上，如果你喜歡無佣金共同基金，直接同此類基金公司進行交易，那么你就能免掉所有的交易成本。

4.擁有房屋，不用追加保證金。

用貸款購買房屋很常見，而只有激進的投資者才會用保證金賬戶購買股票。這並不值得大驚小怪。借錢購買房產，比借錢購買股票要安全得多。

何以如此呢？如果股市下跌，而你擁有通過保證金購買的股票，你就會收到經紀商追加保證金的要求，讓你向賬戶中追加資金或是股票。如果你不追加資金，你的部分或全部持倉就會被拋出，以鎖定損失。

與此不同的是，只要你償還按揭，銀行就不能強迫你追加現金或是賣出房屋，不管你的房價已下跌了多少。這能確保你不會被迫做出草率的決定。

不過，由于房屋所有者不會收到追加保證金的要求，他們在賣出房屋時，可能更容易拖延，也會對房屋的價值抱有一些不切實際的想法。

5.出租房屋「紅利」誘人，但並不是現金方式。

如果你現在購買了一批美國股票，你大概能獲得2%的股息收益。顯然，你更多地會寄望于股價大漲，給你帶來更高的收益。

同時，對房產而言，你不要對房屋價格上漲抱太大希望。根據聯邦住房貸款抵押公司（Freddie Mac）的數據，在過去30年里，房價的年均漲幅不到6%，而通脹率為4%。而且，即使你的房產達到這種漲幅，其中相當一部分也要被上面提到的3%或3.5%的費用率所抵消。

不過，對于房產而言，收益的大頭應該來自于「紅利」，即你獲得的租金收入。當然，我們大部分人都沒有房客，而是自己住在房子裡，相當于把房屋租給了自己。

好消息是，這種估算的租金很有價值。如果你把你的房產出租，你每年大概能獲得相當于房產價值7%的租金，從這裡可以看出，你住在自己的房子裡能實現多少價值。

一個額外好處是：租給自己從稅收角度而言是劃算的，因為你不必為這筆虛擬的租金收入納稅。

那壞消息是什么？你可能從房屋中獲得了真正的價值，但卻拿不到現金紅利。

由此可見，你可能應擁有一套剛好適合自己和家人居住，而並不過大的住房。如果你購買一棟比你真正的需要大很多的房屋會怎樣？這就相當于你租下了一座大廈，但只使用了其中的兩個房間。

US economy impact to Malaysia

滯脹將至-18th Feb 2008
美國將進入兩到三年的滯脹，並擴散到歐洲。新興經濟體同樣面臨高通貨膨脹。未來兩年最大的投資決策，就是如何應對通貨膨脹上升和經濟增長放緩。
眼下，全球股票市場已經崩盤，許多人將此歸咎于美國的衰退。不錯，這確實是原因之一，但更重要的是全球銀行資本損失引起的流動性萎縮。
當商業銀行向央行借貸，貨幣就被「創造」出來。過去幾年，全世界的銀行在信貸擴張中獲得了巨大的利潤，它們勁頭十足地擴張資產負債表上的項目，從而向全球金融系統注入了數量巨大的流動性。
現在我們知道，這些利潤只是會計上的幻覺。銀行一直靠一些廢紙來博取收益，所以，現在的損失不過是抵消昨日高估的利潤。虛假的利潤導致了流動性過剩和資產價格的高估。當資本金減少，銀行就不得不賣掉資產，付給央行現金以還債。當虛假的貨幣消失，全球資產價格也就恢復到了正常水平。央行再怎么降低利率，也無法讓這個過程逆轉。
滬市仍高估100%
從香港說起。面對全球流動性波動，香港市場總是比較脆弱。香港的希望基于13億中國人來購物的夢想，但事實上卻依賴于國際資金。當全球銀行緊縮資金，香港市場就會受到重創。
投資者通過對沖基金兩面下注，導致了市場波動，卻不能根本改變市場價格。當銀行抽出資金，資產價格會出現調整，以適應更低的流動性水平。1998年香港市場曾經崩潰，當時很多人怪罪對沖基金，但最重要的原因，其實是日本銀行機構因為本土損失而撤回資金。現在，歷史又重演了。
我想強調的是，目前發生的一切都是正常的。2007年8月，恆生指數還在2萬點以下，隨著散戶追隨那些突然出現的「股神」而湧進市場，這一指數猛衝到了3萬點。相對于一年前的情況，現在的指數水平是相當合理的。從市淨率來看，港股一點也不便宜。
香港市場還有一個風險，那就是保證金交易。許多散戶投資者，都是在2007年10月保證金借入最多的時候湧入市場的，而當市場衰退，追繳保證金就會帶來賣出的壓力。正是同一批投資者，還是用借來的錢，推動了香港高昂的樓市。我擔心，未來幾個月香港經濟會因為股市和樓市的衰退而受到重創。
由于A股和H股價差拉大，A股市場也已經開始調整。以中國石油為例，1月22日其在香港以9.61港元收市，在上海則是26.18人民幣，也就是說上海的價格比香港高出193%。這個巨大且越來越寬的價格鴻溝，正在損害上海投機者的信心。
我相信，雖然已經有所調整，上海市場還是被高估了100%。不過，經歷上一輪調整后，中國的股評家們將會拋出其他理由來鼓勵投機者。其最主要的論點是，中國與眾不同。他們會要求投資者對價差抱著「一直朝前走，不要朝兩邊看」的態度。
中國有13 億人，其中大概有數千萬是易于輕信的，只要股評家們能讓這些人相信他們，這個泡沫就能持續到北京奧運會以后。現在的調整只是屋頂上的風波，真正著陸還要等到奧運會開完。
美國不必救市
現在，全球金融市場已經如此龐大，其變化足以影響到真實經濟。因此，各國政府和央行必須對市場風暴做出回應。某種意義上，它們已經成了市場的人質。為了應對亞洲股市崩潰，美聯儲1月22日將基準利率削減了75個基點。美國政府也提出1450億美元的一攬子財政方案，其中主要是對家庭和企業的退稅。
這些動作不可謂不大，但不足以阻止經濟衰退或熊市的到來。相反，美國的這些政策將導致其經濟進入兩到三年的滯脹（經濟增長停滯與通脹並存）——比方說，2%的GDP增長，伴隨著4%的通脹。通過貨幣市場，滯脹還將擴散到歐洲。新興經濟體的增長可能更高一些，大概是6%－6.5%的增長率（過去3年是7.5%），但一樣會有高通脹。總而言之，未來兩年最大的投資決策就是如何應對通貨膨脹上升和經濟增長放緩。
米爾頓弗裡德曼曾論證，通貨膨脹總是貨幣現象，價格最終總是等于貨幣供給除以商品服務銷售額和貨幣流通速度的乘積。
經濟學家通常假設，貨幣流通速度不會改變，因為人們的行為模式在一兩年內是穩定的。對發達經濟體而言，這個假設正確，但在發展中經濟就不一定是那么回事。例如在中國，貨幣流通速度可能發生顯著改變，即使政策沒有變化，單單心理變化就能引起通貨膨脹或通貨緊縮。
讓事情更複雜的是資產市場和真實經濟對貨幣的爭奪。因為政府不把資產價格計算進CPI中，貨幣增加首先會抬升資產價格，由此帶來的結果是高資產價格、低通貨膨脹。但「天下沒有免費午餐」，最終高資產價格將引發高需求，從而導致通貨膨脹。
當通脹預期增加，人們不再願意持有貨幣，使得貨幣流通速度增加，進而更推動通貨膨脹。
在那斯達克興起和「911」之后，美聯儲將利率降到1%並保持了很長時間，這是全球資產泡沫及目前信貸危機的根源。
華爾街發明了越來越多的產品，努力把資產膨脹變成消費者可用的鈔票，這增加了通貨膨脹的壓力，迫使美聯儲提高利率。而高利率讓資產泡沫破滅，然后就是所有這些滑稽的信貸產品的崩盤。
對于這個過程，降低利率也無力回天，美聯儲的低政策利率再不能像以前那樣增加需求。
全球銀行的資本在流失，它們必須保留相當於資產規模8%的資本金，每失去1美元的資本金，就得縮減12美元的資產。次貸危機中，所有銀行累計損失了1000億美元，照此計算其資產規模減少了1.2兆美元。
未來，次貸、信用卡、車貸可能還會帶來1000億美元損失。

Cost Control and Budget Planning. Plan and Execute!

if we neglect company cost and budget control,it will create a big impact to the company.
every 10% cost lowering, will help to increase profit of 5%.
clients is not equal to revenue, market not equal to profit, the crucial thing is how you can cut cost for the operation.

there are 12 points in cutting cost in the financial control:

1. 砍价专家
develop a financial control policy by a professional team of finance management. it include collect all the past years figures and documents, check the market and sales analysis, budget planning and etc.

2. 砍人手
human resource is important to the company. necessary training need to be execute in order to train an employee to know where is his /her potential to help the companies. else, company need to give necessary action to the employees in order to avoid "wrong" person work for the company.

3. 砍机构
decreasing department. sometimes an employee may have to b multi tasking. every department need to aim to help company to maximise profit and minize cost.

4. 砍固定资产
Fixed Asset is non flexible cash. all the fixed assets should be able to produce investment revenue at least above 25%.
if we would like to increase our cash, then it must have the additional value. else, we may have to borrow more money to secure the fixed asset.

5. 砍采购成本
build up rapport relationship with supplier, partners in order to lower the cost of business.

6. 砍预算
all departmental cut budget,and submit revenue report. ask every department analyse on budget.

7. 砍库存
stock reduce the cash flow and profit. decrease stock level.

8. 砍劣质客户
if those bad potential client, or bad debts customer, or those customer loss in trust, we do not have to entertain them anymore in order to avoid bigger losses.
focus on those good customers and get more new potential customers.

9. 砍日常开支
such as phone bills, petrol, entertainment, office expenses, travel allowance expenses and etc.
in terms of entertainment, we can choose the certain restaurant or those which we have member priviledges in order to make it standard for the cost.

10. 砍面子
no luxury. client just need efficiet , speed , high quality services and loyalty. low cost is always the crucial for the company.

11. 砍会议，砍聚会
straight to the point in the meeting to save more time and do more quality work for our time.
therefore, always prepare before the meeting. for those late in meeting , should have necessary penalty.
Once the plan has been confirmed in the meeting, must execute it in a certain timeline.

12. 封刀
always calculate profit and planning budget before execute. then, it will be able to control corporate cash flow, reduce human resource. by then, we wont get losses after we have done all the effort. 先算后做。。


Last but not least, financial management is always crucial to a corporate. cut cost, earn revenue and profit. understanding how to earn profit, even understand every employee, every plan and execution, to every product revenue and loss situation, need to shown in figures.

figures tells us how the company doing. Profit making company will be success and be able to contribute to the community, create useful product and cultivate more efficient environment.

let's us learn together to make more profit!

Peace....

人与人之间相处，有时候真的是需要很大的学问。。这是我们也许一辈子都在学习的东西。因为每一个人都有自己的脾性，自己的思想，自己的性格，自己的原则和价值观。
小时候，常常会和隔壁的邻居争玩具，和要好的同学说我不要跟你好了。回想以前会觉得很可笑，也许这就是童真。
有时候，又很怀念小时候的童真，尤其是和好过后，大家又会叫另一个朋友说，我们和他一起玩啦。
长大后，就不可以像小时候这样了，不然会被别人取笑幼稚。当然，也因为我们的思想改变了，学习尊重别人，体谅别人。
虽然有时候，我们很不认同某人的作法，某人的性格，但是也必须要顾及别人的感受，不然只有吵架收场。
我们也不可以要求别人一定要认同你，因为他们也有他们的思想，他们的原则。但其实过后，反思或者客观地去反省这件事。。大家其实也没有必要去争执，反而多了大家了解的空间。
也许他也对，也许你也对，学会包容，忍耐和体谅。。确实是件很大的学问。。

Property to rise above stock market volatility

PETALING JAYA: There is still growth potential in the local property market although the prevailing volatility of the stock market has made property consultants and analysts more cautious of the upside.
While concerned that the recent stock market jitters, which saw the benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) tumble 54.12 points or 3.84% on Jan 22, would affect property stocks in the near term, they are upbeat that the sector is able to ride out the negative investor sentiment.
Property consultant DTZ Nawawi Tie Leong Sdn Bhd executive director Brian Koh said volatile markets would present both threats and opportunities to institutional funds, who may view real estate in Malaysia as an attractive asset class, given a lack of alternatives in volatile markets elsewhere.
“With the continued healthy economy (in Malaysia), overseas institutional funds could be diverted from there (in US) to here. If prices drop steeply in the US, then buying opportunities may arise as seen in the early 1990s when fire sale prices were plentiful,” Koh told The Edge Financial Daily.
Nonetheless, Koh maintain a neutral outlook on the sector, given the strong escalation in property prices in recent months.“The market will possibly take a breather… individual foreign buyers may be spooked by uncertainties and we could see an adverse reflection on high-end residential market demand.”
Analysts, however, were more bullish on the outlook for the property market, citing fundamentals including steady domestic consumption and the Employees Provident Fund’s (EPF) move to allow monthly mortgage withdrawal from Account II which could potentially free up to RM9 billion cash annually into the economy.
“We maintain overweight on property as EPF monthly withdrawals will have a significant impact on general residential property. The commercial property will perform well if the government continues to introduce more liberalisation measures to stimulate the market,” a property analyst said.
OSK Investment Bank analyst Mervin Chow said ample liquidity in the market and low interest rates would compel most Malaysian households to look at investments outside the banking sector.
“Recent volatility in the equity market has given most Malaysians little alternative but to consider storing their wealth in physical property asset, especially those in excellent locations with potential capital appreciation and other wealth creation.
“In addition, higher-end properties are generally perceived as one of the better hedges against inflation in a thriving economy,” he said.
He said Malaysian high-end and luxury properties were also expected to continue drawing interest from investors looking to diversify into cheaper investments outside Singapore and Hong Kong.
“The estimated accumulated excess current account surpluses of US$900 billion (RM2.9 trillion) by Opec implies further inflows of petrodollars into Malaysia for investments or purchase in real assets.
“Also, exemptions from Foreign Investment Committee’s (FIC) approval to purchase houses below RM250,000 with unlimited home loans that a foreigner could undertake and the strengthening of the ringgit will continue to make Malaysian properties an attractive investment proposition to foreigners,” Chow said.
The demand for commercial property in the Klang Valley has been buoyant, particularly in the Golden Triangle and Bangsar/Pantai enclave, not least due to competition from local and foreign real estate investment trust funds (REITs).
Chow said Malaysia’s office market had not matured fully, and this was reflected in its estimated annual capital appreciation of 6% to 8%, compared with 3% to 4% in Singapore and Hong Kong.
“The prime driver for this segment in the Klang Valley would be the continuous mismatch between demand and supply of Prime A office space for the next 12 to 15 months until the next supply cycle, which is expected to hit the market by mid-2009,” he said.
He also said demand for office locations outside Kuala Lumpur city centre would pick up with the decentralisation trend sparked by high rental and traffic congestions, which had seen many rental-sensitive tenants move out to KL Sentral (Bangsar/Pantai enclave), Petaling Jaya, Subang Jaya, Shah Alam and Damansara Heights.
“We still favour the Golden Triangle and Central Business District as a result of strong demand from rich and growing multinational companies,” he added.
KL Sentral, Bangsar, Mid Valley and Mont Kiara areas are featuring prominently as high-growth locations in the Klang Valley for both high-end residential and commercial properties, on the back of firm demand from affluent locals and foreigners.
However, analysts are cautious about the residential market in Johor, saying there is an overhang in the middle to high-end segment and a general decline in housing prices despite prospects in the Iskandar Development Region. “Only limited locations like Nusajaya and Tebrau City are thriving,” Chow said.

www.estate123.com news article on The Edge Daily

26-11-2007: Matrix Invent’s new portal to drive real estate activities by Kevin Tan Email us your feedback at fd@bizedge.com
PETALING JAYA: Information technology provider Matrix Invent (MSC) Sdn Bhd is leveraging on the Internet to boost real estate activities in Asia, especially in Malaysia, via its newly launched property trading web portal.
Its vice president Joe Poh said the company would be investing up to RM500,000 to enhance the web portal, which is also known as estate123.com, for the next two years.
Speaking to The Edge Financial Daily at the estate123.com official launch last week, Poh said those interested to buy or sell properties could join the web portal and enjoy its various functions for free.
The web portal already has close to 400 members, consisting mostly of real estate agents and individuals who want to sell their properties.
On how Matrix Invent would recover its cost of investments, Poh said the company was following a similar model such as those of Skype and was not expecting any revenue for the next two years.
“It is a goodwill business. When we have a big database, we will offer value-added services and charge for these services,” he added.
Matrix Invent chief marketing officer Michael Lim said the company was investing in Internet platform business such as estate123.com as customers were becoming more confident of making transactions online.
Besides providing an avenue for prospective sellers and buyers, other market players such as lawyers, property valuers, developers and bankers could also use estate123.com to get new business.
Currently, the web portal has functions such as mailbox and short messaging service (SMS) to allow prospective buyers to contact sellers. In the near future, it will also have enhanced functions such as property valuation and bidding.
Lim said estate123.com would only focus on properties in the Klang Valley in the initial phase and would eventually include properties in other Asian cities such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Jakarta, Bangkok and Shanghai.
Other than estate123.com, Matrix Invent also launched a software delivery platform known as Pay2Soft.com to provide business applications to customers through the Internet instead of the traditional on-site installation of packaged software.
Poh said Pay2Soft.com would benefit companies that could not afford to buy the traditional business applications package.
While a conventional customer relationship management package, including hardware and installation, could cost up to RM100,000, Pay2Soft.com charges a fee of only about RM50 per user a month for such applications, he added.

Use your time wisely

January 31
花80%时间思考，用20%的时间一次做对。
撰文／齊立文liwen_chi@managertoday.com.tw
「一分耕耘，一分收穫」，是老生常談，鼓勵人要怎麼收穫，先怎麼栽；「兩分耕耘，八分收穫」，乍看有點違反常識和直覺，但仔細尋思，這意味著高投資報酬率，代表事半功倍。
「80/20法則」主張：一小部分的原因、投入或努力，「通常」可以產生大部分結果、產出或酬勞。代入數字之後，典型的模式會顯示：80％的結果，可歸結於20％的原因；80％的產出，來自於20％的投入；80％的成果，歸功於20％的努力。換言之，50％的努力產生50％的成果，才是少見的模式。
80/20這兩個數字只是基準點，用以比喻在大多數情況下，投資與報酬之間的關係多半接近於80：20。不過，在實際狀況下，兩個數字加起來不一定是100，可以是80/30，或15/50，重點在於呈現二組資料之間的不平衡關係。

80/20法則是一種思考法，告訴你一定可以只用兩分的努力，獲取八分的利潤。問題在於，你能不能找出那兩分的努力是什麼？你可知道那最單純、最關鍵的20％在哪裡？而即使找到了努力的重點，還只是起點而已，可以讓你不用瞎忙、避免浪費，能夠把力氣和資源用在對的地方；更重要的在於，你必須花費更多心力、時間和資源在這少數的關鍵要素上。
如果你發現原來有80％的成果，是來自於20％的努力；你若是再強化那20％，並且設法改善原本成效不彰之處，說不定就能創造95％或更高的成果。相較於用100％的努力，得到100％的成果；或是80％的投入，只得到20％的產出，不是更省時、省力、有效率嗎？
善用80/20法則，制定經營策略
80/20法則認為，投入的資源和產出之間，本就存在著無法解釋的不平衡，而投入又可分成兩種不同類型：只能造成少許影響的「多數」，以及可造成重大影響的「少數」。
一般而言，在應用80/20法則時，必須要有兩組資料，而且兩者之間存在著因果或連動的關係，例如，有10項產品，分別為公司創造不同的利潤。80/20分析法的獨特之處在於，它除了按照多寡依序列出每項產品所創造的利潤之外，還會用累進的方式統計利潤金額，如此就可以呈現出是哪些關鍵產品，貢獻了絕大部分的利潤。
80/20分析法的獨特之處在於，它除了按照多寡依序列出每項產品所創造的利潤之外，還會用累進的方式統計利潤金額，如此就可以呈現出是哪些關鍵產品，貢獻了絕大部分的利潤。
不過，80/20法則並不是分析資料就好，更重要的下一步是制訂出相應的策略或做法。80/20法則的用處之一是，確認出哪些是導致80％產出的20％投入，然後耕耘、栽培和複製這關鍵的少數；用處之二則是設法改善「表現不佳」、只占20％產出的80％投入，甚至在必要時，拋棄或大幅減少這無用的多數。

把關鍵的20％做到最好
「把錢花在刀口上，讓最佳人才掌握最佳機會，」這是傑克‧威爾許（Jack Welch）描述自己在擔任奇異（GE）執行長時所扮演的角色。換言之，80/20法則可做為組織在配置資源時的重要依據。
針對創造「不成比例的」高績效的關鍵少數，配置較多的資源，似乎是合理的舉措；不過，對於只帶來些微成效的無用多數，難道就只是加以剔除即可嗎？80/20法則固然點出了我們花費了80％的時間和力氣，只創造了20％的成效，但換個角度想，應用80/20法則，我們不但找到了可大幅提升成效的關鍵施力點，也知道了必須改善的問題點在哪裡。
《80/20法則》指出，既然無用的多數耗費了許多資源，那如果能夠更有效運用這些資源，則產出將可達到倍增的效果。而要達成這個「價值倍增」目標，做法之一就是把原本無生產力的資源，分配到能生產的地方，想辦法物盡其用；另一個做法則是想辦法讓無用的資源，在原來的位置上做有效的運用。
終究，80/20法則還是一套追求「簡單就是美」的哲學，主要的力氣還是要花在辨識最單純的20％，然後設法把這20％做到最高品質。不賺錢的活動或瑣碎無用的多數，若是無法有效改善，就設法去除，不要猶豫，也不要心軟。


贏家總有許多80/20法則
華倫‧巴菲特（Warren Buffet）只投資自己熟悉的事業，不但買得少、也很少賣。他形容自己的投資哲學是：「近乎懶惰。」《80/20法則》的作者李察‧寇區（Richard Koch）將這種少做多得的情形，稱為「有生產力的懶惰」（productive laziness）。
然而，這不表示贏家是懶惰或不盡心的，他們通常都非常努力工作，投注的心力也無異於一般人，差別在於，他們的收穫或報酬，往往是別人的數倍或無數倍。
寇區說，無論在任何領域，總是有八成的人只得到兩成的收穫，但是有兩成的人，輕鬆地就獲得八成的報酬。試著問自己，多數人是哪裡做錯了？那少數人又是哪裡做對了？誰是那些少數人？他們能做的，你能嗎？你能以更精簡的方式達成嗎？你能發現更聰明且更有效率的方式來做嗎？
成功的人或企業，都有其獨特的思維和做法，套用寇區的話就是：「贏家有許多80/20法則。」你能做的，就是「觀察，學習，練習」。

Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) -3.5%??!!

Economic Trends Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) Stuck on 3.5%...

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) kept the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 3.5% after its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting yesterday. The decision came amid upside risk to inflation – which implies interest rate should go up, and downside risk to growth – which suggests interest rate should go down. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve’s on-going FOMC meeting (29-30 January 2008) is expected to again cut the fed funds rate by between 25-50bps from the current 3.5% which was the product of the emergency, inter-FOMC 75bps cut on 22 January.

However, we do not expect the US interest rate policy to have an effect on Malaysia’s interest rate policy, unless domestic demand takes a drastic turn for the worse. Therefore, we maintain our long-standing view that the OPR will stay at 3.5% this year to essentially sustain domestic-driven growth.

The upside risk to domestic inflation is being addressed via administrative measures like price controls, subsidies and the recently announced creation of the National Price Council and national stockpiles of essential food items, as well as via a stronger Ringgit exchange rate to contain import costs, while fiscal policy – via Government spending and measures to boost consumer and business spending – will deal with the downside risk to growth.

Moreover, keeping the nominal interest rate steady in the face of rising inflation means a falling – even negative – real interest rate that is also stimulatory to growth by encouraging spending and investments.